Research in contextEvidence before this studyUK Biobank had completed its recruitment, including its baseline phenotyping and biobanking of samples, before our study began. The DNA had not yet been extracted from the biobanked samples, and the spirometry data quality had not yet been analysed across all UK Biobank participants. We searched for evidence of other large biobanks with spirometry data, including the P3G Catalogue. We did not identify any other biobank with spirometry data and DNA as large as UK Biobank. Evidence regarding the global burden of disease due to smoking or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was obtained from the WHO Global Health Risks Report and a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Tobacco smoking accounted for about 5·1 million deaths globally in 2004; because of recent increases in smoking prevalence in developing countries, the full global effect of smoking is yet to occur. COPD is the third leading cause of death globally. For previous evidence of genetic associations, we gave the highest ranking to associations reaching genome-wide significance in genome-wide association studies, a lower