Fig. 1 illustrates the probability of relapse for non-problem users versus abstainers. Non-problem users began with a higher probability of relapse at 5 years compared to abstainers and continued that trend over time. A time-only model was estimated to examine the probability of relapse at each follow-up. The probability of relapse was highest at 5 years and lowest at 11 years (Table 2). A second model was run adding only the abstinence versus non-problem status at 1 year variable to compare the probability of relapse between the two groups. Individuals who were non-problem users at 1 year had 2.93 times the odds of relapsing over time as those who were abstinent (Table 3).
