Of the many results from the original Nelson et al. publication, we focus on determining whether the probability of progressing along the development pipeline is greater for gene target-indication pairs with genetic evidence as this most directly impacts business decision-making (S8, S9, S11 and S12 Figs show replication of other results). A gene target-indication pair is said to have genetic evidence if there is human genetic evidence of association between the gene target and a trait sufficiently similar to the indication, as measured by semantic similarity in the MeSH vocabulary (see Methods and S4 Text). Fig 1B shows estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the ratio of the probability of progression for gene target-indication pairs with and without genetic evidence computed on the three validation sets and the full set of new data each plotted against values computed from Nelson et al. supplementary tables.
