Chunk #4 — Modeling the Framework for False Positive Findings

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Why most published research findings are false.

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the 2 × 2 table, one gets PPV = (1 - β)R/(R - βR + α). A research finding is thus more likely true than false if (1 - β)R > α. Since usually the vast majority of investigators depend on a = 0.05, this means that a research finding is more likely true than false if (1 - β)R > 0.05.