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Chunk #13 — 4. Discussion

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Smoking trajectories, health, and mortality across the adult lifespan.
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These findings confirm previous research documenting the health benefits of smoking cessation. Large studies show that after 15 years of abstinence, smokers are not more likely than never-smokers to be in poor health (Ostbye, Taylor, & Jung, 2002) and that their risk of mortality returns to nearly the level of nonsmokers (USDHHS, 1990). The present study confirms the benefits of quitting and demonstrates a protective effect of early smoking cessation. However, the results also run counter to previous work by demonstrating differences in mortality between groups even after 15 years of smoking abstinence. Though the survival curve analysis showed that early quitters and low users had similar longevity, early quitters had a significantly higher survival probability than middle quitters at age 81–85, over 25 and 40 years after the average quitting age for these groups. This suggests that after a long period of abstinence the risk of mortality in smokers may return to that of non-smokers, but that the earlier a smoker quits, the greater the health benefits.