Traditionally, research has been quite poor in predicting behavior (e.g., Sutton, 1998; Underwood, 1979). The issue of prediction of later behavior problems is crucial from a policy perspective because early identification of at-risk individuals may be crucial to prevention. Accurate prediction provides important tools for many aspects of public policy, including prison parole, personnel hiring, and security agency clearance. Prediction is generally made by judgments (by experts or laypeople) or by a formula that weighs various characteristics of the individual (Underwood, 1979). One type of formula employs an actuarial model that takes into account many different characteristics of the individual, including risk and protective factors. Because of the actuarial model’s ability to weigh many risk and protective factors simultaneously, the actuarial approach has consistently been shown to be more accurate than judgment-based predictions (Dawes, Faust, & Meehl, 1989). The present study uses an actuarial approach to predict the development of later externalizing problems.
