A second broad domain of influences found to consistently elevate the hazards for all transitions was externalizing behavior, including ever use of cannabis as well as a combined measure of Conduct and Oppositional Defiant Disorders. While externalizing behaviors increased the hazards of transitioning to initiation (particularly ever-use of cannabis for very early drinking) and to first AUD problem within a year of beginning to drink, the increase was also strong for transitions from ever use to disorder, and from first problem to first diagnosis, consistent with the deviance proneness model of AUD etiology. (Zucker 1986; Sher 1991, Iacono et al. 2008). Quite striking were the independent findings for ever-use of cannabis. As we required measures to be time-varying, cannabis use had to occur prior to or at the same age as the alcohol outcome. For alcohol initiation, this would imply very early initiation of cannabis use, and such early cannabis use has been consistently and strongly associated with drinking initiation (Trim et al. 2010) and with development of alcohol and other substance use disorders (Lynskey et al. 2003, Grant et
