The relationship between transitional probabilities and alcohol dependence is provided in the bottom of Table 3. For both the outpatient and the aftercare samples, the transition from nondrinking to heavy drinking, relative to staying classified as nondrinkers, was significantly related to alcohol dependence. Individuals who initially were expected to be in the nondrinking class after treatment were 1.2 and 1.3 times more likely to transition to heavy drinking, as compared with continued expected membership in the nondrinking class, at 6 months in the outpatient and the aftercare sample, respectively, for each additional alcohol-dependence symptom. Also, in the outpatient sample, the odds of transitioning to heavy drinking at 12 months from nondrinking at 6 months were 1.8 times greater for each additional symptom of dependence, relative to those who remained in the nondrinking class. Likewise, in both the outpatient and the aftercare samples, the odds of transitioning from heavy drinking to moderate drinking, as opposed to staying in the heavy-drinking class, was near zero at 12 months for each additional symptom of dependence. In the outpatient sample, participants with more alcohol-dependence
