The above interpretation assumes that prevalences of binge drinking in the reference group (ages 24–34) have been relatively constant between 1979 and 2006, an assumption that is justified on several grounds. Comparing data from states participating in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) between 1985 and 1999, among adults ages 21 to 34, Serdula and colleagues documented very small (~3%) reductions in binge drinking.34 BRFSS estimates of binge drinking among adults in the U.S. population were little changed between 1999 (14.9%) and 2006 (15.4%).35 Similar results were seen among young adults in Monitoring the Future (MTF) follow-up surveys.15 Hence, available indicators suggest small fluctuations (i.e., changes less than 10%), but no major systematic trends in the prevalence of adult binge drinking between 1984 and 2006. We are unaware of data on adult binge drinking prior to 1984, though available evidence suggests relative stability in other measures of adult drinking between 1979 and 1984.36
