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Chunk #207 — Discussion — Important changes in GBD 2016 compared with in GBD 2015 (risks ordered by global rank) — Tobacco

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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
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Progress combatting the tobacco epidemic has resulted in global declines in prevalence of tobacco use and second-hand smoke exposure, yet the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to tobacco has increased since 1990. Increases in burden were driven by a combination of population growth and population ageing, along with persistently high smoking prevalence in some of the most populous countries of the world. Taken together, we can expect the burden of tobacco to remain high in years to come, unless the rate of progress is significantly accelerated. Many countries with persistently high levels of daily smoking recorded marginal progress in the past decade, and smoking remains a leading risk factor in most countries. The fact that tobacco use patterns diverge by location, level of development, and sex highlights the need for more tailored approaches to change smoking behaviours in the future. Particularly worrisome are the trends among young men and women. For example, in Indonesia, a country that has not yet ratified the FCTC,31 more than half of men aged 20–24 years are daily smokers. Understanding what works—and what does