Next, the hazard of experiencing onset of a given milestone was estimated where Time 0 was the time of attainment of the immediately preceding milestone. The milestone of first drunk was attained by 50% of the sample within one year of first drink, with peak periods of early risk (immediately following first drink) and increased risk after nine years following first drink. A similar pattern was observed for the transition from first drunk to first monthly drinking. The weekly HED milestone was attained approximately two years after first monthly drinking, with relatively uniform risk in the years following but some evidence of decreased risk at six years and increased risk at eight years. Finally, the daily HED milestone was reached on average three years following weekly HED, with some immediate risk within a year of weekly HED but relatively uniform risk subsequently.
