Based on the above results, we next studied predictive regression models with either ‘sex and ASPD and BPD diagnoses (Dx model, Model I in Table 2)’ or ‘sex and the ASPD CD and BPD 4 criteria (Model II for clear presence of criteria, Model III for their dummy-coded ordinal-valued severity levels)’ as the independent/predictive variables. Table 2 shows that the levels of the selected criteria displayed a clear dose-response relationship with AUD risk (less clear when replacing BPD4 with ASPD 1, Supplementary Table S4). A typical interpretation of the model-performance indices would be a “fair” performance for the Sx model and “poor” for the Dx model (Table 2). In part, the Dx model performed badly because of the low endorsement rates of ASPD and BPD in comparison to AUD, but the Sx model also explained more variance than a model using sum scores of ASPD and BPD criteria (ΔR2 = 0.055 vs. 0.039).
