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Chunk #0 — 1. Introduction

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Predicting drinking onset with discrete-time survival analysis in offspring from the San Diego prospective study.
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Most men and women in the United States have ever consumed alcohol, with the usual onset of drinking between ages of 14 and 16, a figure that is slightly later in girls than boys (Johnson & Mott, 2001; Sartor et al., 2006; York, 2004). While results vary with the population and methods used, about 5% to 10% of adolescents have had their first drink by age 12; 25% to 35% have consumed alcohol by age 13 or 14 ( i.e., in the 8th grade); 45% to 60% by age 15 or 16 (10th grade); and as many as 75% by the time of graduation from high school (Donovan et al., 2004; Faden, 2006; Faden & Fay, 2004; Johnson et al., 2008).