Estimates for rates of change in the prevalence of alcohol use and the prevalence of one or more binge-drinking episodes varied markedly across surveys. In fact, for the four surveys with the largest sample sizes (NSDUH, NHIS, BRFSS, NESARC), there was no overlap in the 95% confidence intervals between any two surveys for the full-sample analyses of either alcohol use prevalence or binge drinking prevalence. Estimated rates of change were highest for the NESARC, both overall and for individual demographic groups, and lowest for BRFSS, for which estimates suggested downward trends in both alcohol use and binge drinking for most demographic groups. (BRFSS was the only survey to suggest overall downward trends.) For the overall analyses, and for most demographic subgroup analyses, NSDUH estimates deviated the least from the meta-analytic estimates, whereas NESARC estimates deviated the most. The difference between NESARC estimates and meta-analytic estimates were particularly pronounced for binge drinking outcomes. For example, the NESARC estimated a 10-year increase of 38% in the prevalence of binge drinking from 2002–2013 (95% CI: 37.2, 39.6) compared with a meta-analytic estimate of 7.5% (95% CI: 4.8, 10.3).
