In using conditional survival analysis to examine three distinct stages in the development of alcoholism (years to initiation of drinking, progression from initiation to at-risk drinking, and then progression from at-risk drinking to an AD diagnosis), the current study identified unique patterns of stage-specific influences for both risk and protective factors. Most important, protective R/S variables were found to be critical determinants of intermediate-stage progression, thus suggesting a specific timeframe within which psychosocial influences are more likely to be influential in delaying progression to AD. After the onset of at-risk drinking, however, the influence of protective factors appeared to be much reduced while the influence of risk factors became prominent in accelerating progression to AD. These findings suggest that the timing of protective influences is critical to their potency and impact. It may be that protective factors are “gatekeepers” that might inhibit progression of drinking into the at-risk stage. However, those with greater risk due to their psychiatric histories appear to be more likely to progress into at-risk drinking. Such a pattern of findings, if replicated, has important implications for
