The tendency of observational studies to model drinking according to only a single measure of exposure thus ignores changes to alcohol intake throughout the life‐course and the possible effect of such variation on disease risk. For example, in an analysis of Type 2 diabetes risk, a significant interaction is reported between the volume of consumption at baseline and changes to exposure over time 13, whereby reductions in risk are apparent only among moderate drinkers (< 15 g/day) who increased their consumption over time. A similar finding has been reported for coronary heart disease 30. Elsewhere, study participants who drank heavily during early adulthood exhibit a greater risk of metabolic syndrome and common cardiovascular risk factors relative to participants with stable trajectories of consumption 31, with less stable drinking trajectories having been associated with a higher risk of mortality irrespective of average consumption 32.
