Hundreds of GWAS and ever-larger meta-analyses have discovered a lengthening list of variants associated with complex disease. Figure 1 shows the AUC of predictors based on the current genetic knowledge of 18 diseases. Several of these have rapidly improved the prospects of genetic prediction via GWAS. For example, good genetic prediction of age-related macular degeneration was quickly enabled by multiple large-effect variants identified by relatively small GWAS. Another notable GWAS success story (17,18), Crohn's disease, can be reasonably well predicted by a large number of weak effects. Note that the range of AUCs for these diseases is very similar to the range found in classical prediction (1,19–22).
