In Figures 3b and 3c, the results are depicted as green crosses. For interpretational ease, we chose the reference allele so that positive coefficients imply that the estimated effect is in the predicted direction. All 13 associations have the predicted sign. Of the 11 neuroticism polymorphisms, four are significantly associated with depression at the 5% level. Both of the depressive symptoms lead-SNPs replicate (p = 0.004 and p = 0.015), with effect sizes (0.007 and −0.007 SDs per allele), close to those predicted by our Bayesian framework (0.008 and −0.006) (Supplementary Table 14 and Supplementary Table 15).
