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Chunk #33 — DISCUSSION

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Twelve-month prevalence of and risk factors for suicide attempts in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.
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Several additional features of the risk indices developed here warrant further comment. First, our risk indices had strong correlations with planned and unplanned attempts among suicide ideators from a large and heterogeneous set of developed and developing countries, suggesting these indices may have good generality in the prediction of suicide attempts—and indirectly supporting the cross-cultural validity of the WMH-CIDI measure used to assess these risk factors. Second, the performance of our risk indices was only slightly lower that the one developed using a much more homogenous sample34 and is similar to the AUC reported among a selective group of psychiatric patients.65 Our results also suggest that we may be able to predict suicide attempts with the same level of accuracy possible in other areas of medicine in which actuarial approaches that combine risk factors from multiple domains have proven more accurate than clinical prediction, such as in the prediction of violence and sexual offending30, 66 and the prediction of death from natural causes among the elderly.67 Third, and finally, it is important to note that these indices are not intended