Regardless of the outcome, the fluctuating intensity of AUDs over time and the >20% spontaneous remission for AUDs (Schutte et al., 2006; Upah et al., 2015) contribute to the importance of longer term follow-ups (Cunningham et al., 2000; Schutte et al., 2006; Witkiewitz, 2008). Some of the longest published follow-ups of heavy drinkers and those with AUDs used mortality data as the ultimate adverse outcome (e.g., Haver et al., 2009; Kendler et al., 2016; Lundin et al., 2015), however these evaluations rarely included baseline predictors. Studies that included a wider range of baseline predictors of outcomes often involved relatively modest sized samples, focused on trajectories over time rather than predictors of individual outcomes, and/or used secondary analyses of other samples that often had limited available baseline information (e.g., Gonçalves et al., 2017; Jacob et al., 2009; Penick et al., 2010; Upah et al., 2015; Vaillant, 2003).
