The same results were obtained in the validation sample in Study 2 (Table 3; Figure 2). Stressful events that day predicted about an 1-point increase in craving relative to the participants’ own average levels (awithin:R2=.012-.047,p’s<.001; b=1.042–1.092–8.302,p<.001). Higher within-person craving, in turn, predicted the next day’s alcohol consumption, including an increased likelihood that the next day would be a drinking day (bwithin: R2=.021,p<.001; b=.005,p=.011) and an increased deviation of .58 drinks for every 10-unit increase in craving (bwithin:R2=.038, p<.001; b=.058, p<.001). As in Study 1, stress did not have direct effects on the following day’s drinking in Study 2 (cwithin & c’within p’s>.26), but it did have an indirect effect via craving (indirectwithin b=.019-.096,p’s<.001).
