If there is exactly one causal marker in the region and genotypes for that marker are available in the data, then the posterior probability that a marker i drives the association signal in the region r is given by:\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\pi }_{ir}=\frac{{{\rm{BF}}}_{ir}}{{{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{k}{{\rm{BF}}}_{kr}}$$\end{document}πir=BFirΣkBFkrwhere BFkr is the Bayes factor for marker i in the r region33. The 95% credible set for a region is found by going down the list of markers ordered from highest to lowest posterior probability and stopping when the cumulative posterior reaches 0.95.
