We created a clinical/environmental risk index (CERI) considering a variety of established risk factors for SUD (Table 1). The CERI included ten validated early life risk factors associated with later development of SUDs, including: low childhood socioeconomic status (SES), family history of SUD, early initiation of substance use, childhood internalizing problems, childhood externalizing problems, frequent drinking in adolescence, frequent smoking in adolescence, frequent cannabis use in adolescence, peer substance use, and exposure to trauma/traumatic experiences [11, 29, 30]. We dichotomized each risk factor (present vs not present) and summed them into an index for each person ranging from 0 to 10, providing a single measure of aggregate risk. Dichotomizing these items allowed us to harmonize measures across each sample in an interpretable manner. A full list of how each measure is defined within each of the samples is available in the supplementary information (section 3).