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Chunk #34 — The Methods — How Do Classification and Regression Trees Work? — Splitting and Stopping

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An introduction to recursive partitioning: rationale, application, and characteristics of classification and regression trees, bagging, and random forests.
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Since information criteria such as the AIC and BIC are, however, not applicable to nonparametric models (see, e.g., Claeskens and Hjort 2008), in recursive partitioning the classic strategy to cope with overfitting is to “prune” the trees after growing them, which means that branches that do not add to the prediction accuracy in cross validation are eliminated. Pruning is not discussed in detail here, because the unbiased classification tree algorithm of Hothorn et al. (2006), that is used here for illustration, employs p-values for variable selection and as a stopping criterion and therefore does not rely on pruning. In addition to this, ensemble methods, that are our main focus here, usually employ unpruned trees.