Fifth, if the NCANDS data incorrectly code later confirmed reports of maltreatment as first confirmed reports, we would overestimate the cumulative prevalence of confirmed maltreatment. In order to address this possibility, we followed a cohort of children from birth in 2004 until 2011. Results suggested that few later confirmed maltreatment cases were incorrectly coded as first confirmed maltreatment cases. This finding is relevant because it means that the data are reliable to age 8. In light of this, even if we assume that all first confirmed maltreatments after age 8 are incorrectly coded as first maltreatments (which is unlikely), the lowest the cumulative risk of confirmed maltreatment could be is 8.5% (the cumulative risk by age 8), which is two-thirds of the cumulative risk by age 18 (12.5%). For Black children, the lowest the cumulative risk of confirmed maltreatment could be is 14.7% (relative to 20.9% by age 18).
