The transition probabilities, shown in Table 2, indicated that most individuals were expected to remain in the same drinking class over time. There was, however, movement as indicated by transition probabilities greater than zero on the off diagonal. In the outpatient arm, the largest transition occurred from immediately after treatment to 6 months after treatment, with 22% transitioning from nondrinking to heavy drinking and 27% transitioning from nondrinking to moderate drinking. In the aftercare sample, 38% of those expected to be moderate drinkers transitioned to heavy drinking at 6 months—which was more than seven times the probability of transitioning from moderate drinking to frequent drinking in the outpatient arm.
