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Chunk #0 — Introduction

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Mendelian randomization with invalid instruments: effect estimation and bias detection through Egger regression.
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Mendelian randomization1 is becoming an established method for testing whether a modifiable exposure has a causal role in the aetiology of a disease.2,3 As the subject moves forward, ever more ambitious analyses are being attempted. In particular, due to the proliferation of genome-wide association studies, the number of Mendelian randomization analyses using a large number of genetic variants is rapidly increasing.4,5 If the variants in total explain a larger proportion of the variance in the exposure, this will lead to more precise estimates of causal effects, thus increasing the power for testing causal hypotheses.6,7 However, an enlarged set of genetic variants is more likely to contain invalid instrument variables (IVs), due to violations of the assumptions necessary for valid causal inference. The issue of horizontal pleiotropy—where a genetic variant affects the outcome via a different biological pathway from the exposure under investigation—is a particular concern.1,3,8 The inclusion of pleiotropic variants in a Mendelian randomization analysis can lead to biased causal effect estimates and increased type I error rates for testing the causal null hypothesis.9 If the instrumental variable assumptions are