Using logistic regression, we predicted incident depression from baseline personality, controlling for gender, age, education, chronic illness, disability, and subjective health. The same pattern emerged for both major and minor incident depression: Elevated Neuroticism and low levels of Conscientiousness confer risk (see Table 2). Only the effect of Neuroticism on incident major depression, however, was significant at p < .01. None of the covariates, measured at baseline, including disability and subjective health, were significant predictors of either major or minor incident depression.
