This paper reports the first stage of the process of deriving new estimates of alcohol’s role in the burden of mortality and disease, based on research completed as part of the ongoing GBD 2005 study [2]. This process includes evaluating the existing evidence for a causal impact of the dimensions of alcohol on different categories of disease as a first step, then identifying meta-analyses to quantify the corresponding dose-response relationships. As in previous estimates [13], alcohol consumption is but one of a number of risk factors for the GBD study, with the teams working on the different risk factors coordinating their work in the common frame of a CRA. The conceptual model shown in Figure 1 is different from previous models in that it separates the impact of alcohol consumption on morbidity from the impact on mortality. This carries the implication that wherever possible, we tried to find or conduct separate meta-analyses for morbidity and mortality.
