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Chunk #51 — Discussion — Limitations of the proposed approach

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Mendelian randomization with invalid instruments: effect estimation and bias detection through Egger regression.
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At present, we have not validated a universally reliable method for determining standard errors of the MR-Egger estimator when the causal effect is non-zero. Possible approaches include bootstrapping in a one-sample setting, or a hierarchical likelihood-based model that accounts for uncertainty in the genetic associations used as data points in the regression model. Other methods for giving valid inferences in the context of a meta-analysis and small-study bias have been discussed in the literature.14,15 The methods described in this paper therefore provide a sensitivity analysis to assess robustness of the conclusions of a Mendelian randomization investigation to potential bias from directional pleiotropy, and contribute to the overall evidence regarding the existence, direction and magnitude of the causal effect. If the MR-Egger estimate differs substantially from a conventional IV estimate, as in the example of blood pressure and coronary artery disease risk, the causal finding clearly requires additional interrogation. However, confidence intervals for the causal effect should be interpreted with caution when far from the null, for the reasons discussed.