Figure 3 presents the significant (p < .05) paths for the SEM in a model that explains 59% of the variance (the R2). Note that path coefficients of .05 represent p < .04, coefficients of .07 indicate p < .01, and values of .08 relate to p < .001. In the figure, LR related directly to alcohol outcomes, and demonstrated significant paths to peer substance use, alcohol expectancies, and using alcohol to cope with stress. All additional key variables (PEER, EXPECT, and COPE) related directly to alcohol outcomes and to each other within the model. Gender and age covariates related to key components of the model in a manner consistent with Table 1. Fit characteristics for the model were all in the good range, including: CFI = .92; NNFI = .90; RMSEA = .054 (.051 – .058); and SRMR = .042. Without correlated residuals, the indices are .92, .87, .06 (.056 - .064) and .048, respectively. All relevant relationships among key variables in the model had mediational effects, including, for LR, LR – PEER – COPE – ALCOUT (.001, .004), LR – EXPECT – COPE – ALCOUT (.005, .015), and LR – COPE – ALCOUT (.001, .016).
