The linear model including covariates also fit the observed data well: χ2[11]=14.40, p=.35; CFI=.998; TLI=.994; and RMSEA=.01. The severity of girls’ conduct problems at age 11 was associated with a greater likelihood of alcohol use at age 12 (β=.13, p=.01). Reaching menarche by age 11 also predicted an increased likelihood of alcohol use in the following year (β=.19, p=.04). A reduced likelihood of alcohol use at age 12 was predicted by living in poverty at age 11 (β=−.18, p=.03), and by African American race (β=−.42, p<.001). Level of impulsivity at age 11 was not associated with alcohol use in the following year.
