Nelson et al. [3] estimated a twofold increase in approval probability for Phase I drug targets with genetic evidence using drug pipeline data from Informa Pharmaprojects along with genetic data from a variety of sources, all obtained in 2013. This estimate comes from historical rather than experimental data so a direct replication is not possible. However, we can obtain updated sources of pipeline and genetic data and use the data subsets not used in the Nelson et al. study study to validate its claims. Fig 1A shows how updated pipeline (Informa Pharmaprojects [14]) and genetic association (GWAS Catalog, OMIM [15]) datasets may be split into discrete subsets, several of which were not used in the original analysis. We call these sets validation sets. In addition to genetic associations and pipeline progression events added after 2013 (New Genetic and Pipeline Progression sets), we identified a large subset of pipeline data that was available to Nelson et al., but that was excluded from analysis because Pharmaprojects reported an inactive status, most commonly “No Development Reported”. Instead of directly using Pharmaprojects development status,
