In GBD 2016 we have introduced a more accurate method for developing the distributions of exposure for many risk factors. Our work on distributions and the shift to ensemble distributions shows that the assessment of attributable burden is sensitive to distributional assumptions. Given that a number of risks, such as BMI, SBP, cholesterol, and FPG, rise exponentially as a function of exposure, the estimation of the tail of the distribution has an important effect on the results. The ensemble modelling approach can provide more accurate estimation of the full distribution, including the tails of the distribution. In general, we believe that the assessment of the distribution of the risks deserves more careful attention in future research.
