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Chunk #3 — QUANTIFYING PREDICTIVE ACCURACY

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Genetic risk prediction in complex disease.
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The widespread interest in risk prediction has led to the development of an entire ecosystem of classification metrics. The most appropriate statistics to use depend on the circumstances and the question being asked. We discuss below the approaches to quantifying prediction that are most relevant to the subsequent discussion in this paper. More detailed discussions of many of these metrics, how they are related and how they can be classified are available elsewhere (7,8).