A two-wave follow up of a population-based sample of twins was studied. To answer aims i-iii, we first conducted a cross-sectional variable-selection analysis to determine which individual PD criteria predict AUD, while using the second wave as a partial replication. Second, we compared the predictive performance of the selected variables in the larger wave 1 sample against DSM-IV diagnostic definitions. Third, we used both longitudinal and genetic information to study whether or not the selected variables predict future AUD, and for what reasons.
