To assess more formally the combined evidence of association for the ADAMTSL3 SNPS we extended the Bayesian framework developed by Wakefield [29] to consider the cumulative posterior odds for the hypothesis of true association with schizophrenia, as data from successive datasets are added (see Methods). We found that the posterior odds for true association at rs2135551 tracked from 0.10 (after GWAS) to 0.68 (after Replication 1 in Germany) to 0.30 (after Replication 2 in Italy) to 0.15 (after Replication 3 in deCODE) to 0.02 (after Replication 4 in the US cohort). Thus, under these assumptions, the odds for the association being true never rise above one, and finally reduce to the null hypothesis being 50 times more likely than the alternative hypothesis of true association.
