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Chunk #32 — Discussion — AUC and accuracy of genetic profiles

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The genetic interpretation of area under the ROC curve in genomic profiling.
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Currently, the derivation of genomic profiles is very much in its infancy. As the sample size of genome-wide association studies increase, we can expect genomic profiles to include more and more validated associated variants. However, is constrained by the variance that could be detected by the markers that are genotyped recognising that the current generation of genome-wide chips explain at most ∼80% of the known variance in single nucleotide polymorphisms across the Caucasian genome [29]. This, in turn, may only be a fraction of the total genomic variance once structural variants such as copy number variants are included [30]. The actual variance explained by the profile depends on the sample size (i.e., power) of the studies from which associated genetic variants have been detected. It is likely that there are many variants which have such a small effect size that they will be impossible to detect even with very large samples. Although each such variant makes only a very small contribution to the genetic variance, there may be so many that a sizeable proportion of the variance will go undetected.