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Chunk #14 — Methods — Statistical analysis

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Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies.
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Methods we used to estimate reductions in life expectancy (years of life lost) are described in the appendix (pp 6–7). Briefly, estimates of cumulative survival from 40 years of age onwards in different categories of baseline alcohol consumption were calculated by applying estimated HRs (specific to age-at-risk) for cause-specific mortality to the detailed mortality component of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's WONDER database,36 which recorded 10 million deaths (from all causes) in more than 305 million individuals in the USA during 2007–10.37, 38 Results were modelled from age 40 years and enabled estimation of years of life lost between light drinkers (defined as those consuming >0–≤100 g/week of alcohol) and pre-defined groups of >100–≤200, >200–≤350, and >350 g per week. This method does not make use of the survival estimates from the modelled data; instead, it makes inferences by estimating age-at-risk specific HRs, which are then combined with external population age-specific mortality rates.39