For the first time, we assess the contribution of changes of risk exposures to the overall global trend for deaths and DALYs; for example, in the past 10 years, changes in all risk exposures contributed to an 10·8% (8·3–13·1) decline in DALYs, while other factors contributed to a 16·5% (14·1–18·8) decrease in DALYs. More detailed assessments show large declines in CMNN causes and increases in injuries and non-communicable DALYs. In each case, the contribution of other factors was substantially larger than the contribution of risk reduction. Our findings of the relatively small contribution of risk reduction to the declines in NCDs are not at odds with published studies for the UK and the USA,20, 21, 22 because we are reporting at the global level; our results at the national level suggest a larger role for risk reduction in some high-SDI locations. These observations lead to two directions for further analysis. First, what is the explanation for the declines driven by other factors? Some of this effect might be social policy working through various causal channels, and some is likely due
