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Chunk #37 — 4. Discussion

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Predicting drinking onset with discrete-time survival analysis in offspring from the San Diego prospective study.
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The significant interaction between conduct problems and THC use identified a high-risk group of adolescents who all reported drinking by age 16 and who may be at especially high risk for future alcohol and drug problems. This finding is consistent with the notion of a potentiator model in which one risk factor increases the probability of an outcome especially when it occurs in the presence of another risk factor (Kupersmidt et al., 1995). As such, future prevention efforts may benefit from targeting multiple problem behaviors in adolescence to minimize impact on future substance use. It should be noted that conduct problems were assessed lifetime and not prior to drinking onset, therefore interpretations of temporal causality between the two behaviors are limited. However, related traits such as impulsivity and disinhibition are usually seen early in life and likely precede the AFD (Slutske et al., 1998; Kuperman et al., 2001a).