The estimates for rates of increase of both outcomes are much smaller than those derived from the analysis of two administrations of the NESARC in 2001–2002 and 2012–2013, which served as the basis of an earlier analysis of trends in drinking outcomes (Grant et al., 2017). Our analysis of NESARC data yielded an estimated increase in the prevalence of alcohol use of approximately 1% per year, with an increase in prevalence of binge drinking of over 3% per year. These correspond to increases of 11% and 38% per decade, which are four and five times higher than the meta-analysis estimates, respectively. The NESARC results suggest that increases in both alcohol use and binge drinking have occurred among men and women, all race/ethnicity groups, all ages, and all educational attainment categories. In contrast, the meta-analysis found no increases in the prevalence of either outcome for men, Native Americans, Asians, or individuals aged 18–29. Thus, the meta-analysis suggests smaller but still concerning increases in alcohol outcomes, and highlights particular demographic groups that underwent especially large increases.
