We tested a model in which sex, time 1 drinking quantity, time 1 drinking frequency, time 1 drinking problems, and all five traits predicted time 2 drinking quantity, time 2 drinking frequency, and time 2 drinking problems. Bivariate correlations of the latent traits are presented in table 3. All time 1 variables were allowed to inter-correlate, as were the three time 2 criterion variables. The model fit the data well: CFI = .96, NNFI = .94, RMSEA = .05 (90% confidence interval: .03 – .06), SRMR = .04. As figure 1 shows, our hypotheses were supported. Only positive urgency predicted time 2 drinking problems and time 2 drinking quantity above and beyond prediction from all other variables, supporting the unique role of positive urgency with respect to increases in these drinking behaviors during the first year of college. Only sensation seeking significantly predicted time 2 drinking frequency over and above all other variables, speaking to the unique role of sensation seeking in predicting increased frequency of drinking. In addition, being male further predicted increases in drinking frequency over the first
