Men showed a significantly greater risk of incident diabetes than women (figure 2), with a pooled hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.51 (1.39; 1.64). Despite a consistent male excess of diabetes risk across all centres and countries, some heterogeneity in the effect of sex was present (I2 57%). Adjusting the centre-specific effects of sex for waist, but not BMI explained some of the heterogeneity (I2 was reduced to 33%). Diabetes incidence increased linearly with age (figure 3), with an overall, pooled hazard ratio of 1.56 (1.48; 1.64) for a 10 year age difference (1.44 (1.35; 1.55) in men and 1.64 (1.55; 1.74) in women); the apparently substantial heterogeneity (I2 73% overall, 71% in men, 61% in women) was mainly due to the larger than average and statistically significant effect in the Bilthoven cohort (hazard ratio 2.29 in men and 2.28 in women).
