The fact that the diagnostic and criterion outcomes in this study were examined in different populations, i.e., those at risk for each outcome, could arguably cast doubt on inferences regarding causal mechanisms based on the relative magnitudes of the associations of early AFD with various AUD criteria. To examine the impact of having used outcome-specific risk groups, we repeated the models in Table 2 within a common risk group of individuals who had not satisfied any AUD criteria as of the baseline Wave 1 interview (n=10,708). The significant positive associations between AFD <15 and the incidence of dependence, withdrawal, important activities given up, abuse, and recurrent drinking in hazardous conditions remained significant and were generally somewhat increased in magnitude, but the significant positive associations between AFD <15 and drinking more or longer than intended and continued drinking despite alcohol-related interpersonal problems were no longer significant. Of the significant associations between AFD at ages 15-17 and the various outcomes, only one -- drinking more or longer than intended -- remained significant, with the others both losing significance and being slightly reduced
