Predicting arrests, the predicted externalizing problems had an AUC of .78 (see Figure 3), indicating that the prediction was moderately accurate (Akobeng, 2007). The optimal cutoff was defined as the number of externalizing problems which maximized the sum of the test’s sensitivity and specificity. The optimal cutoff for arrests was 12.6 externalizing problems, at which point the sensitivity was .73 and the specificity was .70. A POM score of 12.6 corresponds approximately to a sum score of 9 externalizing problems on the CBCL and TRF, 8 problems on the YSR, and 7 problems on the YASR (where every rating of 1 counts as 1 problem and ratings of 2 count as 2 problems).
