Data from epidemiological and cross-sectional research supports that the age of the first alcoholic drink is a powerful predictor of current and future alcohol-related problems. Using respondents (> 18 years) from the National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey, Grant and Dawson (1997), found the age of 14 years or younger was a significant predictor of lifetime alcohol abuse and dependence, as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Fourth Edition (DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994). The odds of alcohol dependence decreased by 14% while the odds of alcohol abuse decreased by 8% for each year the age of the first drink increased (Grant & Dawson, 1997). Ellickson, Tucker, and Klein (2003) found an early AFD (i.e., grade 7) was also significantly related to school-related problems such as excessive absenteeism and poor grades and delinquency. The prevalence of problems such as illicit drug use and criminality persisted into young adulthood.
