The CERI was the strongest association with each outcome. The proportion of those meeting criteria for each SUD surpassed lifetime estimates in persons with 3 or more, 5 or more, and 7 or more risk factors for drug dependence, alcohol dependence, and nicotine dependence, respectively. The discriminatory power of the combined model (AUC = 0.74 − 0.86) was similar to AUC estimates published in the original paper from which many of the risk index items were derived (AUC ~ 0.80) [11]. Interestingly, this risk index was originally developed for identifying persons with persistent SUD through early mid-life (~age 40). In the current analysis we demonstrated that the CERI in conjunction with demographic covariates and PGS does equally well for those who meet criteria for any SUD by young adulthood.
