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Chunk #182 — Results — Drivers of changes in risk-attributable deaths and DALYs

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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
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Figure 6 shows the contribution of these drivers across age groups for DALYs. Across age groups, the contributions of the four drivers differ greatly. Changes in risk exposure have played a major part in the declines in DALYs younger than 5 years, accounting for 26·7% (24·3–29·7) of the trend in DALYs in the post-neonatal period and 27·3% (24·9–29·7) among ages 1–4 years. Trends in risks account for a decline of 8·7% (6·3–11·1) of DALYs in older children (ages 5–9 years) and 9·0% (6·5–11·4) of DALYs in young adolescents (ages 10–14 years). As expected, population ageing is a more significant driver among older age groups, accounting for up to 51·4% (49·1–53·9) of the change in DALYs since 2006 among the age group 90–94 years. Finally, the proportion of the change in DALYs that is due to all other factors—ie, not explained by these three major drivers—also shows large variation across age groups, ranging from a decrease of 3·5% (1·1–6·0) in the age group 15–19 years to a decrease of 28·2% (25·8–30·5) in the age group 1–4 years.