Our analysis of the last five years of drug development data validates the results of Nelson et al. and indicates that the positive association between genetic evidence and drug success is not just a historical phenomenon. Using logistic regression to control for target and indication level properties, and quantifying genetic evidence on a continuous scale, we also demonstrated that associations to disparate phenotypes is a negative predictor of approval. With these algorithmic developments, we have built a Shiny [26] app that others can use to evaluate target-indication pairs of interest. As mechanistic understanding of genetic associations increases, our data suggests the reliability of genetic predictions of drug targets will continue to improve. In closing, public and private investments into genomics for the purpose of improving the fraction of successful drug targets appears to be well warranted.
